Save the Date: Mobile
Future Forward 2011 - Sept 2011
Forward is a gathering of some of the most influential
minds in the mobile industry. The experts and visionaries from
around the world will discuss and debate the future of mobile
Check out 2010 Event Summary.
In proud partnership
2011 Mobile Predictions Survey
First things first. From all of us at Chetan Sharma Consulting,
we wish you and yours a very happy,
healthy, and prosperous 2011. Thanks to all who participated in
our 2011 Mobile Predictions
Annual Survey. We have found it is the best way to think about
the trends coming our way.
We put some of the questions to our colleagues and industry
leaders in the industry. We were able to
glean some valuable insights from their choices and comments.
This survey is different from some of
the others in the sense that it includes industry movers and
shakers participation. Executives and
insiders (n=225) from leading mobile companies across the value
chain and around the world
opined to help us see what 2011 might bring.
Ten names were randomly drawn the limited edition
Mobile Future Forward book.
of Mobile Advertising,
Deutsche Telekom AG
VP/GM North America,
Director of Mobile,
Software Client Leader,
Perlego Systems, Inc.
Sr. Director of Strategic Planning,
Vice President North America,
Thanks again to everyone who contributed. We will be calling on
you again next year. We are clearly
living in "interesting times" with never a dull moment in
our dynamic industry. It has been a terrific
year for us here at Chetan Sharma Consulting and we are looking
forward to 2011 and seeing many of
you along the way. We hope you enjoyed gaining from the
Be well, Do Cool Work, Stay in touch.
Thanks. With warm wishes,
Your feedback is always welcome.
Now onto the 2011
Mobile Industry Predictions Survey Results
The panel comprised of
movers and shakers of the mobile industry from around the world.
What will be the biggest stories
In last year's survey, Google/Android
narrowly missed out to be the biggest story of the year but this
year, the verdict was clear that Google will continue to
dominate the headlines with Android devices and new updates and
apps. Given that we are in the midst of 4G deployments and ITU's
flipflop on the definition, we could be in for an interesting
When will Verizon iPhone launch?
Inordinate amount of ink has been
spilt over Verizon's iPhone speculation. However, given the
chatter, our panel voted for a Q1 launch.
Who will be the most open player
in the mobile ecosystem in 2011?
In all our surveys Google has consistently
cemented its perception of being the most open in the ecosystem.
Will Android tablet sales exceed
iOS tablet sales in 2011?
Last year, Android OS edged past iOS,
however, given the lead iOS has had in tablets, it might be hard
to overcome the number of shipments in 2011.
Who will make the biggest mobile
acquisition in 2011?
Got Cash? Big players are likely to go
shopping but who will score the blockbuster deal of the year.
Google and Microsoft will duke it out with Google taking the
How will the "Apps vs. Mobile Web"
debate shape up in 2011?
Apps vs Mobile Web has been as hotly
debated in the industry as the CDMA vs. GSM battles of the past.
Our panel thought Apps will continue to grow though mobile web
starts to show its muscle.
By how much will the mobile
advertising ad-spend increase in 2011?
Our panel was more bullish on mobile
advertising than last year with a good 50% of respondents aiming
for 200% growth and higher.
Which market will be the biggest
infrastructure in 2011 for sales opportunities?
India and China are laying out 3G and North
America is expanding on 4G. Infrastructure contracts abound.
Who will be the mobile come back
story of 2011?
Many long-time players are under the gun
this year. Will Windows 7 help Microsoft or will Meego make
Nokia competitive. Story will unfold this year.
Who will end up having the
strongest position in the mobile payment/commerce space?
While Japan/Korea markets have developed
mature mobile payments solutions, the battle royale of mobile
payments in North America will play out between the financial
guys and Operators with Internet players making a strong run at
it as well. 2011 might help decide the long-term winners in the
space. Our panel thinks, the likes of Mastercard and Visa will
edge out others in the tussle.
Which areas will feel the most
impact from Regulators in 2011?
Regulators can have a huge impact on the
course of the industry and nation's competitiveness. With the
laws all but laid out, the real rulings might come from the
Which solutions will gain the most
traction for managing mobile data broadband consumption?
2010 saw the emergence of tiered data
pricing in North America and operators all over the world are
bracing for a long-term challenge of managing mobile data
growth. We have written extensively on this subject in our
Yottabyte series. Our panel voted for Tiered pricing and 4G as
the top two solutions.
Which category will generate the
most data revenues in 2011?
Global markets are quite different and
while data service revenues have been growing in all regions,
our panel breaks down by categories in terms of expected
contribution from various segments.
What will help mobile cloud
computing gain traction in 2011?
Mobile Cloud Computing is expected to take
several strides in 2011 with Media and Enterprise demand at the
What will be the most successful
non-mobile phone category in 2011?
As we have highlighted in our previous
research, Connected devices have shown tremendous growth in
2010. Tablet seems to be clear category winner.
What will be the breakthrough
category in mobile in 2011?
Mobile payments and commerce are starting
to take off and are expected to show the most growth in 2011.
By the end of 2011, how will we
end up defining 4G?
ITU's flipflop means, anything above HSPA+
will be deemed a 4G technology.
Which enterprise segment will
mobile impact the most?
Mobile as a platform is booming with Retail
finally getting into the swing of things and will show the most
activity in 2011.
What will be the dominant revenue
model for apps in 2011?
While paid apps dominated the revenue
stream in the early days, advertising and in-app payments are
taking off on iOS and Android. Developers will play with a
combination of models depending on what works on a given
What mode of mobile payments will
get traction in NA and WE in 2011?
Operators experimented with mobile payments
over the last few years, now is the time to put the solutions to
Who was the mobile person of the
Who can compete with King Jobs.
Launching iconic devices year after another, Steve Jobs has set
the direction of the industry since 2007 and was a clear
favorite for the mobile person of the year. The tremendous
success of the apps personified by blockbuster hit of "Angry
Birds" took away the second spot with Andy Rubin's Android
effort won him the third spot.
Well, there you have it. The top
trends and stories we will be talking about in 2011. Thanks
again for all who participated and we hope that you found this
useful as you embark on your journey for the year.
We will be keeping a close eye on the trends in the wireless
data sector in our blog, twitter
The next US Wireless Data Market update will be released in Mar
2011. The next Global Wireless Data Market update will be issued
in Mar 2011.
Disclaimer: Some of the companies mentioned in this paper are